During the Asian session on Friday (January 30th), US crude oil slightly retreated, trading around $64.80 per barrel, maintaining a short-term bullish trend. According to the latest survey results, the annual average price forecast for Brent crude oil has been revised upward to $61.33 per barrel, and the average price forecast for US crude oil has been revised upward to $58.14 per barrel, significantly higher than previous forecasts. It is worth noting that this adjustment in forecasts did not occur in an environment of significantly tightened supply and demand, but rather against the backdrop of still room for growth in global crude oil supply. This means that the upward shift in the oil price center is more due to risk premiums than fundamental structural changes.

The main factor driving the rapid price increase is market concerns about the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, especially the potential impact on shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz. As one of the world's most critical energy transportation routes, any disturbance in this region is likely to be amplified and interpreted by the market.

From a daily chart perspective, US crude oil has recently completed a key technical correction. After a previous decline, prices formed a support zone around $56, which is both a previous area of dense trading volume and a key defensive level for the mid-term correction. Prices rebounded quickly after touching this area, indicating significantly strengthened support below. In terms of moving averages, WTI daily charts are still trading below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, but the short-term decline has clearly slowed.

Crude oil's short-term (1-hour) trend has been upward, with the moving average system in a bullish alignment supporting the price, indicating an unchanged short-term upward trend. Oil prices retreated slightly in the early morning, remaining within a minor range and forming a potential flag pattern. Attention should be paid to the lower edge of the flag pattern for support. The overall outlook for crude oil today is bullish. Today's strategy: Buy at 64.40, stop loss at 64.00, target 66.60.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.